Risk Management
Saying no with a score
Risk = likelihood × impact, expressed in a language executives and auditors understand. Risk management decides what to accept, mitigate, transfer or avoid — and where budget is actually spent.
What you will learn
- Compute and score risk with likelihood × impact
- Classify responses: mitigate, accept, transfer, avoid
- Run a basic risk register for a realistic system
What is this?
Risk management is the discipline of scoring threats as the product of likelihood and impact, then deciding what to do: mitigate (reduce likelihood or impact), transfer (insurance/outsourcing), accept (documented), or avoid (stop the activity). A risk register tracks these decisions with owners, and reviews keep them honest. It's the 'so what' of threat modeling.
Why do you need it?
- You can't fix every threat; risk scoring is how you decide which ones deserve budget.
- Auditors and boards communicate in risk language — an incident without a risk framing is hard to defend.
- Outsourcing/cloud transfers some risks forward to vendors — a business decision, not a technical one.
- Risk registers survive staff changes; tribal memory doesn't.
Mental model
Home insurance decisions
Information risk management
You don't insure every possession — you weigh how likely each loss is and how much it would hurt. The expensive-to-replace kings get insurance (transfer), the cheap-to-fix gets maintained (mitigate), and some small risks you live with (accept).
How it works
- Identify assets and threats (from threat modeling), then score likelihood (1-5) and impact (1-5).
- Risk score = likelihood × impact (commonly 1-25), or quantitative in dollars where data exists.
- Classify: above threshold → mitigate/transfer; below → accept with documentation; impossible → avoid.
- Assign an owner per risk and an expiry; re-review on a schedule and on major changes.
- Report the register to stakeholders in the impact/likelihood language they already use.
Classic 5×5 risk matrix and response zones.
In production
- A bank quantifies phishing loss at $2M/yr; MFA deployment reduces likelihood, moving the risk from red to yellow — budget justified.
- A company transfers liability to a cloud provider's SLAs for availability while retaining responsibility for their own IAM misconfig.
- A startup documents an accepted risk (cosmetic, low-likelihood vector) and re-reviews it quarterly.
Best practices
- Score with defined criteria (what does 1 vs 5 likelihood mean?) so scores are consistent.
- Make every register entry actionable: owner, decision, review date, evidence.
- Liaison risk to business impact: a data leak = customer trust + regulatory, not just 'a CVSS score'.
- Re-audit on change: new features, new vendors, new compliance demands shift the matrix.
- Pair the register with threat-model findings so nothing lives in two places.
Common mistakes
- Producing a register nobody reads — risk management is the decisions, not the doc.
- Accepting risks without an owner or date ('we'll revisit it') — 'accept' must be an active document.
- Confusing CVSS severity with business risk: a high-CVSS internal-only control may be lower risk.
- Ignoring third-party risk: your supply chain's likelihood is part of your register.
Debugging tips
- When stakeholders argue about a risk, decompose it: which likelihood/impact disagreement is actually the dispute?
- When a risk 'keeps getting ignored', check whether the register has owners and dates; opinions without owners die.
- Re-risk on incidents: a realized risk's recorded score was probably understated — an actual breach recalibrates.
Security considerations
- Regulated industries turn 'acceptable risk' into auditable evidence — keep the register and decisions, not just scores.
- Risk is attacker-adaptive; as controls improve, attackers change tactics — the register must evolve with them.
Interview checkpoint
Hands-on lab
- Identify assets and threats for a small example system
- Score likelihood × impact on a 5×5 matrix and pick responses
- Write the register with owners, decisions and review dates
Build and Score a Risk Register
30 min · intermediate
Quick quiz
Which risk response would you choose for an impact you cannot afford to self-insure?
A risk matrix score alone (e.g., likelihood×impact) is sufficient to make a risk decision.